Market Roundup
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Aug) -3.2%, -3.7% previous, 3.1%
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Aug) -2.4%, -2.6% previous, 0.2%
• Japan Leading Index (Aug) 106.9, 106.7 previous, 109.3
•Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 9.8%, 3.5% previous, 22.0%
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Oct) 98.5 forecast, 98.3 previous
• 08:00 German Business Expectations (Oct) 86.8 forecast, 86.3 previous
• 08:00 German Current Assessment (Oct) 84.4 forecast, 84.4 previous
• 08:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 85.6 forecast, 85.4 previous
• 08:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Sep) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• 08:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Sep) 16,435.2B previous
• 08:00 EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Sep) 0.8% previous
•08:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Sep) 0.8%, 0.6% previous
• 10:00 France Jobseekers Total (Sep) 2,951.5K previous
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as investors were cautious on uncertainty about the Nov. 5 U.S. election outcome. Opinion polls show the race to the White House remains tight, with less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 presidential election. The greenback is strengthening as investors revise their expectations away from a significant Federal Reserve rate cut and factor in the potential for a second presidency for Republican Donald Trump, who has promised high tariffs and tax cuts. Those policies would stoke inflation and slow rate cuts, and could affect trading partners' currencies.The market was completely pricing in a cut of at least 25 bps a month ago, with a 58.2% chance of a 50 bps cut, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Friday as investors evaluated the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need for better tracking of developments in the less transparent non-banking sector. The pound rose 0.4% to $1.29695, approaching the $1.30 mark after hitting its lowest level since mid-August in the previous session. On the economic front, a survey of British business activity revealed the slowest growth in 11 months for October, with uncertainty surrounding the Labour government's first budget dampening confidence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2912(Oct 23rd low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2901 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: New Zealand drifted lower against US dollar on Friday as kiwi dollar was pressured by rebounding US dollar. Dollar is gaining ground as investors shift their outlook, scaling back expectations for major rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and contemplating the likelihood of a second term for Republican Donald Trump.On the data front ,Consumer confidence in New Zealand plummeted in October, even as the central bank significantly accelerated its interest rate cuts during the month.Confidence dropped by 4 points in October from September, reaching a reading of 91.2 points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar held near three month high against the yen on Friday as investors awaited election in Japan over the weekend that is likely to complicate the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalisation plans. Japanese voters will vote on Sunday for a general election, with opinion polls showing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose its long-held dominance.The uncertainty and prospect of political instability could have implications for the BOJ's rate hike path, as it tries to steer a smooth lift-off from near-zero interest rates. The central bank next meets on Oct. 30-31.The dollar was last 0.04% higher at 151.94 per yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.12 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.23(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average marked a second week of declines on Friday as investors weighed the risk outlooks ahead of a domestic election that could see the ruling party lose its majority.
The Nikkei N225 closed 0.6% lower at 37,913.92, posting a 2.7% loss for the week.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices nudged higher on Friday and are on track for a weekly gain of more than 1%, as tensions in the world's top oil-producing region, the Middle East, and a restart in Gaza ceasefire talks in the coming days kept traders on edge.
Brent crude futures climbed 31 cents, or 0.4%,to $74.69 a barrel by 0642 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.48 a barrel, up 29 cents, or 0.4%.
Gold prices eased on Friday but were on track for a third straight weekly gain, as investors sought the safe-haven metal in the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions.
Spot gold eased 0.2% to $2,729.35 per ounce by 0731 GMT due to profit-taking. Prices hit a record high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday and are up 0.3% so far in the week.
