Market Roundup
UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 1.1% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 4.0%, 3.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 3.9%, 3.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 1.0% previous
• EU Current Account (Aug) 31.5B,42.2B forecast, 39.6B previous
• EU Current Account n.s.a. (Aug) 35.2B, 48.0B previous
• EU Construction Output (MoM) (Aug) 0.10%, 0.00% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 4.6% previous
• 12:30 US Building Permits (Sep) 1.450M forecast, 1.470M previous
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep) -, 9.6% previous
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (Sep) -, 1.350M forecast, 1.356M previous
•14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 481 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 586 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•14:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
•16:10 US Fed Waller Speaks
•16:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded near three month low against dollar on Friday as investors digested ECB’s rate decision. European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut, even though it refrained from offering new clues about its next move. The ECB reduced its interest rates by 25 bps, following a similar-sized cut in September, which marked its first back-to-back rate cuts in 13 years..This came in the face of money markets' expectations of three further reductions through March 2025. The euro, which is around its lowest since early August, is heading for its largest three-week decline against the dollar since 2022, down around 3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0820(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Friday after data showed UK consumer spending was surprisingly strong last month, offering some reassurance about the strength of the economy, although the currency was still set for its third weekly drop.British retail sales unexpectedly rose in September, according to official data which contradicted signs that consumers were downbeat about possible tax rises ahead of the new government's first budget later this month.Sales volumes increased by 0.3% in September, beating economists' expectations for a monthly 0.3% fall. Sterling rose to a session high of $1.307 earlier in the day, was last up 0.2% at $1.3037. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar hovered near a two-month low as the New Zealand dollar remained under pressure from the strength of the US dollar. US dollar firmed after U.S. retail sales growth camehigher than expected and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets are largely expecting the RBNZ to implement another 50-bps cut in November, though a smaller possibility of a 75-bps reduction remains. At (GMT 12:08) Kiwi dollar was trading at up 0.19% at $0.6070 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Friday after Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura warned about currency movements, emphasizing that excess volatility is undesirable.The dollar touched 150 yen for the first time since Aug. 1 after solid U.S. retail sales data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will pursue modest interest rate cuts over the next year-and-a-half as the world's largest economy remained resilient.The yen has been volatile in recent months, first driven higher by the Bank of Japan's unexpected rate hike in late July and then pushed lower by receding concerns about the U.S. economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.30 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.45(Oct 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 148.67(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 climbed on Friday, as tech stocks made a strong comeback at the end of a bumpy week, while the European Central Bank's rate cut and a flurry of corporate earnings set up the main stocks index for a second straight week of gains.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.71 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold raced past the $2,700 mark for the first time on Friday, extending a rally driven by expectations of further monetary policy easing and safe-haven demand due to uncertainty about the U.S. presidential elections and Middle East conflicts.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,711.75 per ounce by 0933 GMT, having hit an all-time high of $2,714.00 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained over 2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $2,726.90.
Oil futures in inched lower and were headed for more than a 6% weekly drop on Friday on concerns about demand from China's slowing economy and easing supply risk from the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures inched 33 cents lower, or 0.44%, to $74.12 a barrel by 1143 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.41 a barrel, down 26 cents, or 0.4%.
