Market Roundup
•Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 4.1%, 2.4% previous
•UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct) -6, -9 forecast, 4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.593% previous
•14:00 French French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.071% previous
•14:00 French French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.824% previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Oct) -9.0 previous
• 15:30 US 2-Years Note Auction 3.520% previous
•15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.510% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 17:30 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
• 19:45 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Monday as investors geared up for a busy schedule of crucial economic data releases. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos' speech is due later in the day. Sweden's preliminary GDP figures and September retail sales are set to be released on Tuesday.On Wednesday, the euro zone will reveal preliminary flash GDP, consumer confidence, and economic sentiment data, while Germany will release its consumer price figures, flash GDP, and employment data. Spain’s estimated GDP, Italy's preliminary GDP, and the British budget are also due on Wednesday.CPI data for the euro zone, France, and Italy will be released on Thursday. The euro meanwhile rose 0.17% to $1.0816, but was still down over3% on the month. Strong resistance can be seen at 1.0816(SMA5 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0847(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0785(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday but was on track for its biggest monthly fall since September 2023 against the dollar while being roughly unchanged versus the euro with markets focused on major central banks' monetary easing paths. Interest rate-setter Catherine Mann, meanwhile, said the cooling of price growth still had a long way to go before hitting the central bank's 2% target. Traders are also focused on the new Labour government's first budget on Oct. 30.Analysts noted that under the pre-existing fiscal rules, the government would have limited additional headroom to introduce capital investment measures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3018(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3083(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2925(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar drifted near multi-month lows against dollar on Monday adding to their monthly losses of more than 4% as dollar marched higher on bets of a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election and of a more restrained Federal Reserve in delivering upcoming rate cuts. Looking Ahead,Australia's main release is September and Q3 CPI data on Wednesday, which will reveal whether inflation pressures are finally abating .Retail sales, housing finance and PPI data are also due. New Zealand has Q3 employment and the ANZ business survey. The Aussie slipped 0.1% against the U.S. dollar on Monday to $0.6596, the lowest since mid-August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6632 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6678 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5681 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5551(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained against the yen on Monday but gave up ground after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a drubbing in Sunday's election, raising uncertainty over the path for policy and the economy.Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for almost all of its post-war history, and junior coalition partner Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The LDP previously held 247 seats and Komeito held 32.The outcome may force parties into fractious power-sharing deals to rule, potentially ushering in political instability. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.87 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.69(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.88(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares started the week on a positive note, as investors prepared for a busy schedule of key economic data releases and earnings from major U.S. companies.
At (GMT 12:51),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices tumbled by more than $4 a barrel on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran at the weekend bypassed oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies.
Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their lowest since Oct. 1 at the open. By 1130 GMT Brent was down $4.28, or 5.6%, at $71.77 a barrel while WTI lost $4.25, or 5.9%, to $67.53.
Gold prices eased on Monday, weighed down by a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields while traders await a slew of U.S. economic data for guidance on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate stance.
Spot gold lost 0.5% to $2,732.98 an ounce by 1230 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,758.37 last Wednesday, lifted by safe-haven demand in the face of market risks from continuing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.U.S. gold futures declined 0.3% to $2,745.10.
