Market Roundup
• French Jul Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3%,0.4% previous, -0.5%
• French Aug CPI (YoY) 1.9%,1.8% forecast, 2.3% previous
• French Aug CPI (MoM) 0.6%,0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
• French Q2 GDP (QoQ) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French Q2 GDP (YoY) 1.0%,1.1% previous
• 07:00 French Aug HICP (YoY) 2.2%,2.1% forecast, 2.7% previous
• French Aug HICP (MoM) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
• German Aug Unemployment Change 2K, 17K forecast, 18K previous
• German Unemployment Rate 6.0%, 6.0% forecast, 6.0% previous
• German Unemployment 2.801M,2.802M forecast, 2.809M previous
• 07:55 German Unemployment n.s.a. 2.872M , 2.809M previous
• Italian Aug CPI (YoY) 1.1%,1.2% forecast, 1.3% previous
• Italian Aug CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• EU Aug Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%,-0.2% previous
• EU Aug Core CPI (YoY) 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.9% previous
• EU Aug CPI (YoY) 2.2%,2.2% forecast, 2.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Jul Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
• 12:30 US Jul PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
• 12:30 US Jul PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Personal Income (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Personal Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q2) -0.30% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jun GDP (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.53% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q2) 1.6% forecast, 1.7% previous
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI (Aug) 45.0 forecast, 45.3 previous
• 14:00 US Aug Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• 14:00 US Aug Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• 14:00 US Aug Michigan Consumer Expectations 72.1 forecast, 68.8 previous
• 14:00 US Aug Michigan Consumer Sentiment 67.8 forecast, 66.4 previous
• 14:00 US Aug Michigan Current Conditions 60.9 forecast, 62.7 previous
• 14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• 15:00 Canada Jun Budget Balance (YoY) -3.89B previous
• 15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jun) 1.10B previous
• 17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 483 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the dollar on Friday after data showed Euro zone inflation slowed August. Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level in three years this month, bolstering the case for another European Central Bank rate cut in September. Inflation in the 20 euro-sharing countries slowed to 2.2% from 2.6%, matching forecasts, as lower energy prices moved it closer to the ECB's 2% target after three years of exceeding that level. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also dipped to 2.8% from 2.9%, as weak imported goods prices countered an increase in services inflation, which rose to 4.2% from 4.0%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1138(Aug 29th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1070(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1047 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied on Friday but was set to end the week slightly lower after strong U.S. data underpinned the dollar.Sterling has fallen after hitting a two-year high against the dollar on Tuesday, with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Thursday helping boost the American currency.Investors on Friday were waiting for the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, at 1230 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET).The pound was last up 0.1% at $1.3181 yet was set to finish the week down 0.22%. Traders now more strongly favor a quarter-point Fed rate reduction on September 18, with the probability of a 50-basis-point cut falling to 34% from 38% the previous day, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3284(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3315(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3115(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(50%fib).
AUD/USD: AUD/USD remained steady on Friday despite weaker-than-expected Australian retail sales data, as traders looked ahead to the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report. The data showed that Australian retail sales were flat in July, missing analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Market attention has now shifted to the U.S. PCE inflation report, which is anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the potential size of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut. The Aussie stood at $0.6806 after touching a fresh eight-month top of $0.6823. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6821(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6865(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6733 (July 10th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6705(38.2%fib).
NZD/USD: NZD/USD remained steady on Friday as the New Zealand dollar sustained its momentum, bolstered by Thursday’s strong business confidence data. The business confidence index in New Zealand soared to 50.6 in August, up from 27.1 in July, marking the highest reading in a decade. A quarter-point rate cut by the RBNZ is still fully priced in for October, but markets have somewhat reduced the likelihood of a half-point move. The kiwi held firm at $0.6262 against the U.S. dollar, after peaking at $0.6298 overnight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6300(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6312 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6233 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6180(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the yen on Friday but upside was limited as investors awaited the release of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for more precise guidance. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data set to be released later in the day is expected to play a crucial role in shaping US rate outlook. Traders see a September rate cut as a done deal but, after the data, laid only 34% odds of a 50-basis point cut, down from 38% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.56(38.2 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.75(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.28(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose to an all-time high on Friday, boosted by real-estate stocks, with the benchmark set to gain for a fourth straight week, although caution prevailed after inflation reading for the Euro zone.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied near its all-time high on Friday and was set for a monthly gain, driven by U.S. rate-cut bets and geopolitical uncertainty, while focus shifted to a key inflation report.
Spot gold was steady at $2,520.36 per ounce, as of 1132 GMT, just shy of the record high of $2,531.60 hit on Aug. 20. The bullion has gained about 3% for the month.
U.S. gold futures edged 0.3% lower to $2,552.90.
Oil prices steadied on Friday on track for a weekly gain as Libyan output disruptions and Iraqi plans to curb production raised supply concerns, while data showing the U.S. economy grew faster than initial estimates eased recession fears.
Brent crude futures for October delivery , which expire on Friday, were down 7 cents, or 0.09%, at $79.87 a barrel by 1041 GMT. The more actively traded contract for November inched up 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $78.87
