Market Roundup
•Japan Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.8,49.5 forecast, 49.5 ,51.2 previous
•Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) -0.1%,0.4% previous
•Australia Aug ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) -2.1%,-2.7% previous
•Australia Aug Building Approvals (YoY) 24.90%, 9.80% forecast, 11.40% previous
•Australia Jul Building Approvals (MoM) 10.4%, 2.4% forecast,-6.4% previous
•Australia Business inventories (MoM) (Q2) 0.1% ,-0.5% forecast,1.5% previous
•Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q2) -5.3%, -0.6% forecast, -2.5% previous
•Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q2) -1.7%,-8.4% previous
•Australia Private House Approvals 0.6%,-0.5% previous
•China Aug Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.4,50.0 forecast,49.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•06:00 German May Retail Sales (YoY) -0.6% previous
• 06:00 German May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast, ,-1.2% previous
•06:30 Swiss Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -0.2%forecast,-2.2% previous
•07:45 Italian Aug Manufacturing PMI 48.0 forecast, 47.4 previous
•07:50 French Aug Manufacturing PMI 42.1 forecast, 42.1 previous
•07:55 German Aug Manufacturing PMI 42.1 forecast, 42.1 previous
•08:00 Italian GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
•08:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•08:00 EU Aug Manufacturing PMI 45.6 forecast, 45.6 previous
•08:30 UK Aug Manufacturing PMI 52.5 forecast, 52.5 previous
•09:00 Italian Jul PPI (YoY) -2.5% previous
•09:00 Italian Jul Italian PPI (MoM) 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell to a two-week low against the dollar on Monday as traders reduced their expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing. The focus is now shifting to a critical U.S. jobs report due later this week. Analysts noted that a U.S. public holiday on Monday might lead to a slow start for the dollar, but the rest of the week will feature a steady stream of macroeconomic data, culminating in the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Economists forecast an increase of 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to edge down to 4.2%. The euro slipped slightly to $1.0430, the lowest since Aug. 19. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1128(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1185(Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1030(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0968 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed against dollar on Monday as investors prepared for a data-heavy week, culminating in the U.S. jobs report. This key report could determine whether the anticipated rate cut later this month will be a standard adjustment or a more substantial move. Futures are 100% priced for a cut of 25 basis points on Sept. 18, and imply a 33% probability of 50 basis points. They also have 100 basis points of cuts priced in by December, and 120 basis points for 2025. A holiday in the United States and Canada led to thin market liquidity, while victories for far-right parties in German state elections introduced additional political uncertainty. Sterling was flat at $1.3129, holding close to Friday's low of $1.31095, its weakest since Aug. 23. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3284(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3315(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3115(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(50%fib).
.AUD/USD: the Australian dollar held steady Monday as investors awaited the June-quarter GDP report to assess future interest rate moves. This report, due this week, could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's decisions when they meet later this month. The RBA has maintained interest rates at 4.35% since November, citing a still-hot labor market as a reason against a near-term cut. The Aussie was trading at $0.6763 after reaching an eight-month high of $0.6823. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6785(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6826(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6751(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6699(50%fib).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar eased slightly against the U.S. dollar on Monday ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data, which will influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision at this month's meeting. Friday's U.S. PCE data did not alter expectations for the Fed's policy direction. Following Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, a rate cut at the September 17-18 meeting is nearly certain. Investors are now focusing on the August U.S. jobs report due Friday. With Powell prioritizing the labor market, the data's significance has increased, and some analysts suggest a weak report might lead the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6300(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6312 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6233 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6180(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar remained largely unchanged against the yen as investors awaited crucial U.S. jobs data that will influence the size of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut at its September 17-18 meeting. Following Chair Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference last month, a rate cut seems almost certain. However, investors are keen to determine whether the Fed will opt for a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point reduction. In Japan, a private-sector survey released Monday indicated that factory activity contracted at a slower pace in August, buoyed by improvements in output and new orders. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 49.8 in August from 49.1 in July and was also up from the preliminary reading of 49.5. This suggests a glimmer of hope for an economy that appears to be stabilizing. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.67(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.95(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets began the week on a cautious note on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of economic data, highlighted by a U.S. jobs report .
Chinese blue chips dipped 0.6%,South Korean KOSPI was up 0.09%,Hang Seng was down -1.73%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices extended losses on Monday with investors weighing higher OPEC+ production from October against a sharp drop in output from Libya amid sluggish demand in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures fell 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $76.36 a barrel by 0108 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 50 cents, or 0.7%, to $73.05 a barrel..
Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Monday as investors looked to a key U.S. jobs data to firm their bets on the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expected this month.
Spot gold eased 0.1% at $2,499.47 per ounce, as of 0143 GMT. U.S. gold futures inched up 0.2% to $2,531.90.
