Market Roundup
• EU June CPI, n.s.a 126.58, 126.31 previous
• EU June CPI (YoY) 2.5% ,2.5%forecast,2.6% previous
• EU June HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 2.8% ,2.9% previous
• EU May Unemployment Rate 6.4%, 6.4% forecast,6.4% previous
• EU June Core CPI (YoY) 2.9% ,2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
• EU June Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
• EU June CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Jun Manufacturing PMI 50.2 forecast,49.3 previous
•14:00 US May JOLTs Job Openings 7.960M forecast,8.059M previous
•14:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 41.2 forecast,40.5 previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index-0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•13:30 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday after Euro zone inflation eased a touch last month.Euro zone inflation eased last month but a crucial services component remained stubbornly high, likely fuelling concern among some European Central Bank policymakers that domestic price pressures could stay at elevated levels.Consumer inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency slowed to 2.5% in June from 2.6% a month earlier, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists, as a rise in energy and unprocessed food costs moderated.The figures are unlikely to provide the ECB much clarity on where prices are heading and ECB President Christine Lagarde already said that more time is needed to be certain, so there should be no hurry to ease policy further. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0739(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0762(61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0711(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0682(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound neared its lowest in almost two months against a robust dollar on Tuesday, as the U.S. currency got a lift from a pop higher in Treasury yields. Investors in U.S. assets are contemplating the prospects of a second Donald Trump presidency, after President Joe Biden's faltering debate performance last week and Monday's Supreme Court ruling that the former president has broad immunity from prosecution over attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.With the dollar broadly in the ascendant, sterling traded around 0.25% down on the day at $1.2618, skimming last week's low at $1.2616, its weakest since May 15. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2688(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2749(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2643(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2599(61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors looked ahead to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and important jobs data for more insight into the future of interest rates. Traders will look for cues on rate cuts when Powell speaks later in the day. Other data points on their radar include ADP employment, ISM services PMI and minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, due on Wednesday, as well as the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9050 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9107 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9013 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8967(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hit a near 38-year high to the yen on Tuesday following a surge in Treasury yields as investors contemplated prospects of a second Donald Trump presidency.The dollar rose as high as 161.745 yen on Tuesday, a level not seen since December 1986.The currency pair is highly sensitive to U.S. yields and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% to start the week. .Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated on Tuesday that officials are watching currency markets with vigilance, but noticeably didn't repeat a warning that they stood ready to act. Strong resistance can be seen at 161.66(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.95(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.92 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 158.49(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell to two-week lows on Tuesday as a relief rally following the first round of French parliamentary elections proved to be short-lived, while investors awaited inflation data for hints on the euro zone's interest rate path..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 1.06 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.67 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar held firm, while investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key jobs data for further clues about the interest rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,327.06 per ounce, as of 0710 GMT. U.S. gold futures steadied at $2,339.10.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, trading near two-month highs reached in the previous session on expectations of rising demand during the summer driving season and possible supply disruptions from Hurricane Beryl.
Brent crude futures rose 51 cents, or 0.59%, to $87.11 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 51 cents, or 0.61%, at $83.89.
