Exports likely to be a drag on Finland's Q4 GDP

Data released on Monday showed that the value of Finnish goods exports fell by 5.2% y/y in December, inline with expectations.  It was the 5th consecutive month showing a fall from the previous year.

Finnish exports remained weak in December. The contribution from foreign trade to Finland's Q4 GDP is likely to be negative. Finland's Q4 GDP growth numbers are likely to be released in late February and foreign trade will definitely be a drag, potentially as much as around -1 %-point q/q and -2 %-points y/y.

"We estimate that in Q4 the value of goods exports decreased by 3.2 % q/q due to widespread weakness. For goods imports we estimate an increase of 2.5%. Taken together, the trade balance deteriorated in Q4 surprisingly much in spite of cheaper crude oil." said Nordea Bank in a research note