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Federal Reserve has a dual mandate; price stability and maximum employment. The chart is prepared in FRED dashboard of St. Louis FED.
How each mandate stands?
Price stability -
- Probability of deflation has diminished over the years through FED action.
- Inflation remained below FED's target of 2% since the crisis.
Maximum employment -
- Unemployment rate has dropped to 5.5% much faster than economists and FED were expecting.
- It currently stands at the upper range of the central tendency of longer run FED forecast.
Recent FED speakers -
- Loretta J. Mester - "Rate hike needed soon. Will not support a less than 25 basis points hike."
- Richard Fisher - " FED need to rate hike or lose credibility"
- James Bullard - "Rate hike is overdue"
Dollar -
- Excessive strength of dollar is sure to be discussed over the FED meeting and would pose a challenge for FOMC.
- Stronger dollar pose challenge for inflation as well.
Probability -
- FED to go with the first rate hike around June this year.
- Move to a neutral stance thereafter for much longer time than market is expecting.
- Shout the buck down, after the rate hike.
