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According to prominent US investment bank Goldman Sachs there may be good reason for FED to keep interest rates on hold well into 2016 and potentially beyond. The risks have grown of not a short time delay but longer period of Zero rate policy (ZRP).
Though December is still Goldman's top forecast.
Last Friday's very weak non-farm payroll, where job addition was just 142,000 in September and last two month got revised down by 59,000 along with no wage growth has clearly knocked out many of the hawks.
Implied probability of a rate hike has fallen below 8% for October hike and around 35% for lift off in December.
According to Goldman Sachs,
- "Further bad news on output and employment could potentially result in quite a large shift in the monetary policy outlook. When the starting point for growth is far above trend, a given slowdown merely delays the point at which the labor market hits full employment, inflation pressure rises more significantly, and standard monetary policy rules call for liftoff. But when the starting point for growth is only modestly above trend, as it probably is right now, the same slowdown might halt the move toward full employment and greater inflation pressure entirely. In that case, standard monetary policy rules might justify a continuation of the current zero-rate policy for much longer, well into 2016 or potentially even beyond."
Dollar nevertheless has been performing well, in spite of severe knock back in rate hike expectation. FXCM Dollar index is currently trading at 12047, up from 12012 low made after Friday's NFP.
