Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy Amid Middle East War Inflation Risks 
Japan Inflation Expectations Rise as BOJ Rate Hike Timing Faces Uncertainty 
RBI Clamps Down on Rupee NDF Activity, Banks Face Steeper Losses 
Paraguay Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% as Inflation Remains Stable Amid Global Uncertainty 
Bank of Japan Warns of Regional Economic Risks Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Oil Prices 
Federal Reserve Probes Big Banks Over Private Credit Exposure Amid Growing Systemic Risk Concerns 
South Korea Central Bank Signals Cautious Policy Amid Inflation and Middle East Tensions 
ECB Rate Outlook: Ceasefire Eases Pressure but Hikes Still Expected in 2026 
The FOMC meets on October 27-28, but is not expected to announce a rate hike. The FOMC is likely to prefer to wait until December to make a decision whether to go ahead with a 2015 liftoff. Since there will not be an update of the FOMC's projections, nor a press conference by Chair Janet Yellen, the only piece of information that we can look forward to is the FOMC statement. The assessment of the economy may move market expectations of the first hike.
While recent data suggest that US GDP growth is being dragged down by the deteriorating global economic environment, there is still sufficient momentum in employment growth to push the various labor market slack measures down to the Fed's desired levels, supporting the Committee's confidence in the inflation outlook.
"We think that the Fed is close to the finish line, and it will take more negative evidence to convince the majority in the FOMC to delay its first rate hike to next year. Obviously, if that evidence arrives, then we will change our call accordingly", says Rabobank.
