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The FOMC meets on October 27-28, but is not expected to announce a rate hike. The FOMC is likely to prefer to wait until December to make a decision whether to go ahead with a 2015 liftoff. Since there will not be an update of the FOMC's projections, nor a press conference by Chair Janet Yellen, the only piece of information that we can look forward to is the FOMC statement. The assessment of the economy may move market expectations of the first hike.
While recent data suggest that US GDP growth is being dragged down by the deteriorating global economic environment, there is still sufficient momentum in employment growth to push the various labor market slack measures down to the Fed's desired levels, supporting the Committee's confidence in the inflation outlook.
"We think that the Fed is close to the finish line, and it will take more negative evidence to convince the majority in the FOMC to delay its first rate hike to next year. Obviously, if that evidence arrives, then we will change our call accordingly", says Rabobank.
