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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: 2-year auction speaks a lot on rate hike expectations

The 2-year treasury auctions yesterday say a lot about market expectations of a hike and also on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Ms. Yellen is expected to speak. The symposium will begin on Thursday in the mountain resort of Jackson Hole, organized by St. Louis Fed.

For anyone, who is not aware, let’s first clarify saying that the treasury securities are auctioned and traded on a WI basis. WI stands for When Issued, which is a transaction made conditionally because the securities have been authorized but yet to be issued. One of the biggest benefits of WI is that it can shed lights on the potential demand.

Yesterday, the demand was healthy for the auction. Bid to cover ratio, which dropped to multi-year low at 2.52 in the previous auction, jumped to 2.831 in yesterday’s one. The WI shows that the market was expecting that yield to be 0.771 percent, the bonds were finally issued 1.1 basis points lower. The yield was same seen at July auctions.

This clearly indicates that the recent hawk talks by New York Fed’ s Dudley, Vice-chair Stanley Fischer, and San Francisco Fed chief John Williams had no impact and the market is far from pricing a hawkish Fed.

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