One of the most influential policymakers at the FOMC, the New York Fed President William Dudley, a known dove who has a permanent vote in the FOMC seems to be changing sides. Speaking on Tuesday he said that there has been a very large increase in both household and business confidence since the election and the financial markets have been very buoyant. He added, that there are expectations that the fiscal policies would move in a more stimulatory direction. These developments, according to him, make the case for rate hikes, more compelling.

As Mr. Dudley pointed out that data released over the past months show that the economy is expanding at an above-trend pace, job gains remain elevated and inflation has drifted up close to the target. He added that in his forecasts he didn’t include the fiscal stimulus factor which means that the Fed need not or may not wait for the stimulus to act again to hike rates.

Mr. Dudley’s comments pushed the odds for a March hike to as high as 80 percent last night.

These comments do change our FOMC dashboard, which looks like,

Doves –  Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari.

Hawks – Janet Yellen, Charles Evans, Patrick Harker, Stanley Fischer, William Dudley, and Robert Kaplan

Unknown – Jerome Powell

Pls. note that one of the dovish members, Daniel Tarrullo has resigned and the position is yet to be filled.