Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
RBA Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons 
Fed Governor Lisa Cook Warns Inflation Risks Remain as Rates Stay Steady 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 18th June)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 98 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 15.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 82.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 1.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 14.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 79.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 5.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 5.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 40.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 50.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 3.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 5.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 49.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 8.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have spiked sharply.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 83.3 percent probability compared to 67.4 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 53.4 percent probability instead of 41.4 percent probability just a week ago.
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