Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
RBA Deputy Governor Says November Inflation Slowdown Helpful but Still Above Target 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
Bank of Japan Signals Cautious Path Toward Further Rate Hikes Amid Yen Weakness 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell Over Headquarters Renovation 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 2nd July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 96.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 3.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 24.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 72.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 2.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 23.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 70.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 6.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 42.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 43.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 3.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 8.8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 39.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 43.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 7.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened for the near month and eased for the far month.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 75.3 percent probability compared to 70.8 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 47.5 percent probability instead of 49.7 percent probability just a week ago.
- It is important to note that despite Fed’s forecast, the market is not ready to price in a fourth hike.
