Paraguay Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% Amid Slowing Growth 
Goldman Sachs Delays Bank of England Rate Cut Forecast Amid Middle East Inflation Risks 
RBA Set for Back-to-Back Rate Hikes, Westpac Forecasts 
China Holds Benchmark Loan Prime Rate Steady for Tenth Consecutive Month 
J.P. Morgan Now Expects Two ECB Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Pressures 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Uncertainty 
ANZ and Westpac Forecast Two RBA Rate Hikes in March and May 2026 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 30th July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 97 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 8.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 88.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 2.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 8.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 84.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 7.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 2.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 29.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 63.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 26.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 59.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 10.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened for near and far months.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 97.3 percent probability compared to 85.7 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 68.6 percent probability instead of 60.3 percent probability just a week ago.
