BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Sticky Inflation, Weak Yen Shape USD/JPY and Nikkei Outlook 
Australia Inflation Cools as Core CPI Misses Forecasts, Easing RBA Rate Hike Pressure 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady for 14th Month as Economic Recovery Remains Uneven 
Japan Services Producer Prices Rise 3.2% in June, Supporting BOJ Rate Hike Expectations 
Japan Economy Minister Downplays Inflation Risks Despite BOJ Warning 
Singapore Central Bank’s Exchange Rate Policy Explained: Why MAS Uses the S$NEER Instead of Interest Rates 
Chile Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.5% as Inflation and Global Risks Persist 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 15th April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 10.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 89.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 12.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 87.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 28.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 71.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 31.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 68.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 7.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 57.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have sizably tightened but still quite dovish.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 42.7 percent probability, compared to 53.5 percent last week, and 58 percent in the week before that.
