BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise as Weak Yen and Strong U.S. Jobs Data Increase Pressure 
Indonesia Plans Higher Asset Yields to Boost Rupiah and Restore Investor Confidence 
BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor Signals No Need for Interest Rate Hike Amid Iran War Inflation Risks 
Croatia Weighs Ante Zigman for Central Bank Governor Role in Key ECB Transition 
Senegal Appoints Economist Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo as Prime Minister Amid IMF Debt Crisis 
ECB Keeps July Rate Options Open Amid Iran War Energy Price Risks 
South Korea Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns 
RBI Hits Pause as Geopolitical Storm Clouds Gather 
Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Holding Interest Rates Steady Until 2027 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 22nd April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 20 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 80 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 27.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 69.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 9.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 53.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 38.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 48 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 18 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 41 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 36.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have sharply turned dovish. However, it is less to do with the state of the U.S. economy but rather the march higher by the effective federal funds rate, which is widening against the interest rate the Fed pays on excess reserve.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 63.3 percent probability, compared to 43.7 percent last week, and 42.7 percent in the week before that.
