India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock 
Bank of Japan Unveils New Inflation Gauge to Support Case for Future Rate Hikes 
Bank of Korea Nominee Shin Hyun-song Signals Possible Rate Hike Amid Middle East Inflation Fears 
Bank of Korea Governor Nominee Warns of Action if Korean Won Weakens Further 
Bank of Japan Officials Signal Continued Interest Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Concerns 
RBA's Hauser Flags Uncertainty on Rate Settings Amid Iran War Economic Risks 
RBNZ Holds Rates at 2.25% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns 
Morgan Stanley: Fed Rate Cuts Still on Track Despite Oil-Driven Inflation 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 22nd April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 20 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 80 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 27.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 69.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 9.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 53.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 38.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 48 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 18 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 41 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 36.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have sharply turned dovish. However, it is less to do with the state of the U.S. economy but rather the march higher by the effective federal funds rate, which is widening against the interest rate the Fed pays on excess reserve.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 63.3 percent probability, compared to 43.7 percent last week, and 42.7 percent in the week before that.
