Fed Hike aftermath Series: Key comments from Rosengren and dashboard update

Boston Federal reserve President Eric Rosengren kept up his hawkish tone in terms of monetary policies, despite a slowdown in the job creation in the month of March and April.  Speaking to central Vermont Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Rosengren said, “With conditions now consistent with full employment and the Fed’s inflation target, in my view, monetary policymakers should certainly continue on the path of gradual normalization, and continue to explore its pace”. Mr. Rosengren supports three or more rate hikes this year and he is also supporting the idea to address the Fed’s balance sheet issue, which is currently at $4.5 trillion.

This year we have been addressing the outlook on the possible action of the Fed by creating a dashboard that divides the policymakers into three camps; hawks, doves, and neutral based on the policymakers’ views.  Our March dashboard was a success as it not only predicted the Fed meeting outcome correctly, it also captured the dissenter.  Mr. Rosengren’s views do not change our dashboard materially as he is not a voting member this year.

With the market pricing the next hike in June, our dashboard is also focused on the June meeting and it currently looks like below.

Doves: Neel Kashkari

Hawks: Charles Evans, Janet Yellen, Patrick Harker, William Dudley, and Robert Kaplan

Unknown: Stanley Fischer, and Lael Brainard

Pls. note that Daniel Tarrullo has resigned and the position is yet to be filled.