FxWirePro: AUD/USD bulls unlikely to hold falling wedge and rising channel supports, bears on verge of extending double top formation – Trade tunnel spreads

Chart and candlestick pattern formed: Minor trend slides through falling wedge and intermediate trend in rising channel.

Back-to-back shooting stars pop-up at wedge resistance and the bearish engulfing pattern has occurred to hit wedge baseline (refer daily chart).

These bearish patterns appear at 0.7859, 0.7876 and 0.7677 levels in between bearish candles with big real bodies and shown steep price slumps.

While double top pattern with top 1 at 0.8125 and top 2 at 0.8135 levels has occurred in rising channel (refer weekly plotting).

Bears seem to breach below wedge baseline, as current prices slid below DMAs, more dips likely on selling momentum and breach below these levels.

Most noticeably, these bearish signals are coupled with bearish EMA and MACD crossovers & overbought pressures from leading oscillators signal continued weakness.

On a broader perspective, the pair that has been going through consolidation phase after a massive downtrend, where the double top formation seems to be resuming major trend again.

While both leading oscillators (RSI & Stochastic) have been showing constant downward convergence, momentum seems to be in bears’ favor.

Trade tips: Well, on trading perspective, at spot reference: 0.7920, it is advisable to buy tunnel spread (which is binary version of debit put spread strategy) using upper strikes at 0.7702 levels and  lower strikes at 0.7625, the strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields as long as underlying spot FX keeps dipping but remains above lower strikes on expiration.

Alternatively, on hedging grounds, we advocate shorting futures contracts of mid-month tenors as the underlying spot FX likely to target southwards 0.74 levels in the medium run.

Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position.

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD spot index is inching towards 17 levels (which is neutral), while hourly USD spot index was at 86 (bullish) while articulating (at 08:18 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:

http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.

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