Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
Bank of Japan Signals Readiness for Near-Term Rate Hike as Inflation Nears Target 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
Australian retail sales numbers have disappointed the streets, actual prints are at -0.1% where consensus was at 0.3% in Feb with consumer sentiment slipping back into 'cautiously pessimistic' territory in Dec-Feb. Jan retail sales grew by 0.4%, the lift following a soft end to 2016. The recent pattern has been driven by significant moves in 'household goods' retail due to the closure of the Masters Home Improvement chain.
Consequently, AUDUSD contained in a 0.7600-0.7700 range.
AUDUSD in medium term perspectives: At the risk of testing 0.7800 during the next few weeks as USD longs are pared. Longer term we expect to see it slightly lower to around 0.7600. A steady hand from the Fed in June plus an optimistic RBA should limit downside on AUDUSD during the next few months.
Further out, though, the underlying AUD trend should be gently lower, as growing bulk commodity supply gradually cools the 2016 price surge. Iron ore should be back under $80/tonne by June, with further (modest) declines likely in H2 2017.
