Federal Reserve Probes Big Banks Over Private Credit Exposure Amid Growing Systemic Risk Concerns 
Bank of Japan's Ueda Flags Low Real Interest Rates as Key Factor in Rate Hike Timing 
Bank of Korea Nominee Shin Hyun-song Signals Possible Rate Hike Amid Middle East Inflation Fears 
Citigroup Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecast Amid Strong Jobs Data and Inflation Concerns 
Paraguay Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% as Inflation Remains Stable Amid Global Uncertainty 
RBNZ Holds Rates at 2.25% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns 
Bank of Japan Faces Rate Uncertainty Amid Middle East Oil Shock 
South Korea Central Bank Signals Cautious Policy Amid Inflation and Middle East Tensions 
RBA's Hauser Flags Uncertainty on Rate Settings Amid Iran War Economic Risks 
Bank of America Maintains Forecast for Two Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Despite Inflation Risks 
ECB Warns of Rising Inflation Risks Amid Iran War Energy Shock 
Japan Inflation Expectations Rise as BOJ Rate Hike Timing Faces Uncertainty 
RBI Clamps Down on Rupee NDF Activity, Banks Face Steeper Losses 
Australian retail sales numbers have disappointed the streets, actual prints are at -0.1% where consensus was at 0.3% in Feb with consumer sentiment slipping back into 'cautiously pessimistic' territory in Dec-Feb. Jan retail sales grew by 0.4%, the lift following a soft end to 2016. The recent pattern has been driven by significant moves in 'household goods' retail due to the closure of the Masters Home Improvement chain.
Consequently, AUDUSD contained in a 0.7600-0.7700 range.
AUDUSD in medium term perspectives: At the risk of testing 0.7800 during the next few weeks as USD longs are pared. Longer term we expect to see it slightly lower to around 0.7600. A steady hand from the Fed in June plus an optimistic RBA should limit downside on AUDUSD during the next few months.
Further out, though, the underlying AUD trend should be gently lower, as growing bulk commodity supply gradually cools the 2016 price surge. Iron ore should be back under $80/tonne by June, with further (modest) declines likely in H2 2017.
