Indonesia Passes New Central Bank Law, Raising Investor Concerns Over Policy Independence 
BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor Signals No Need for Interest Rate Hike Amid Iran War Inflation Risks 
BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 1% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
RBI Holds Interest Rates at 5.25%, Cuts India Growth Forecast Amid Rising Global Risks 
BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise as Weak Yen and Strong U.S. Jobs Data Increase Pressure 
Kevin Warsh Faces Early Fed Test as Inflation Risks Challenge Rate-Cut Expectations 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
RBA Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 4.35% as Markets Watch AUD/USD and ASX 200 
ECB Keeps July Rate Options Open Amid Iran War Energy Price Risks 
Jerome Powell Warns Against Politicizing the Federal Reserve, Defends Democratic Institutions 
Taiwan Central Bank Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Through 2027 
Australian retail sales numbers have disappointed the streets, actual prints are at -0.1% where consensus was at 0.3% in Feb with consumer sentiment slipping back into 'cautiously pessimistic' territory in Dec-Feb. Jan retail sales grew by 0.4%, the lift following a soft end to 2016. The recent pattern has been driven by significant moves in 'household goods' retail due to the closure of the Masters Home Improvement chain.
Consequently, AUDUSD contained in a 0.7600-0.7700 range.
AUDUSD in medium term perspectives: At the risk of testing 0.7800 during the next few weeks as USD longs are pared. Longer term we expect to see it slightly lower to around 0.7600. A steady hand from the Fed in June plus an optimistic RBA should limit downside on AUDUSD during the next few months.
Further out, though, the underlying AUD trend should be gently lower, as growing bulk commodity supply gradually cools the 2016 price surge. Iron ore should be back under $80/tonne by June, with further (modest) declines likely in H2 2017.
