BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise Ahead of September Meeting 
Singapore Central Bank’s Exchange Rate Policy Explained: Why MAS Uses the S$NEER Instead of Interest Rates 
RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
Eurozone Bond Yields Fall as Oil Slump Eases Inflation Fears Ahead of Central Bank Meetings 
Chile Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.5% as Inflation and Global Risks Persist 
Brazil Cuts Selic Rate to 14% as Inflation Eases but Risks Persist 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady for 14th Month as Economic Recovery Remains Uneven 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as Inflation Risks and Global Uncertainty Persist 
Australian retail sales numbers have disappointed the streets, actual prints are at -0.1% where consensus was at 0.3% in Feb with consumer sentiment slipping back into 'cautiously pessimistic' territory in Dec-Feb. Jan retail sales grew by 0.4%, the lift following a soft end to 2016. The recent pattern has been driven by significant moves in 'household goods' retail due to the closure of the Masters Home Improvement chain.
Consequently, AUDUSD contained in a 0.7600-0.7700 range.
AUDUSD in medium term perspectives: At the risk of testing 0.7800 during the next few weeks as USD longs are pared. Longer term we expect to see it slightly lower to around 0.7600. A steady hand from the Fed in June plus an optimistic RBA should limit downside on AUDUSD during the next few months.
Further out, though, the underlying AUD trend should be gently lower, as growing bulk commodity supply gradually cools the 2016 price surge. Iron ore should be back under $80/tonne by June, with further (modest) declines likely in H2 2017.
