Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1984.98
Kijun-Sen- $2006.54
Gold surged more than $40 on board-based US dollar selling. It hit a high of $2039.90 and is currently trading at around $2031.04.
Fed kept its rates unchanged as expected at 5.25-5.50%. "Recent indicators show that growth of economic activity has slowed in the third quarter of 2023 and easing inflation".
Major economic data for the day
Economic Data for the day -
Dec 14th, 2023, SNB monetary policy (8:30 am GMT)
BOE monetary policy summary (noon GMT)
ECB monetary policy (1:15 pm GMT)
US retail sales (1:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 102.40/101. The near-term resistance is 103.25/104.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Mar increased to 69.90% from 39.7% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield declined more than 5% after the dovish Fed policy. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -38% from -52%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2020, a break below targets of $2000/$1970. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2050 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2015-16 with SL around $2000 for TP of $2150.
Silver-
Silver showed a massive jump of $1.50 on dovish comments from the Fed chairman. The precious metals are holding above 200 and 55 W EMA . A jump to $26/$27 is possible. Minor support is $23.20/$22.50.
Crude oil-
WTI crude formed a triple bottom around the $66.50 level and showed a minor pullback after crude oil inventories. It fell by 2.3 M barrels for the week ended Dec 8th compared to 549000 barrels.
Major resistance- $75/80. Significant support- $66.50/$63.
