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New Zealand recorded a current account deficit of NZ$ 2.61 billion in the three months to December, compared to a downwardly revised NZ$ 4.74 billion gap in the previous quarter.
The seasonally adjusted deficit was NZ$1.94 billion from NZ$2.21 billion in the previous quarter, as export earnings fell more than overseas expenditure, resulting in a greater current account deficit.
Considering full 2015, the annual current account deficit was recorded at $7.7 billion or 3.1 percent of GDP.
New Zealand's economy continued to grow at a steady clip in the fourth quarter of 2015, powered by service-sector growth that outweighed weakness in agriculture and manufacturing. Gross domestic product expanded by 0.9% in the three months to December from the previous quarter.
In contrast, Kiwi's international trade is predominantly driven by dairy industry, the benchmark NZ dairy index dropped back to negative territory at last week’s auction after recording a slight lift at the beginning of March. Last week’s GDT auction, the index fell by 2.9% with an average product selling price of $2,190/tonne. The price of whole milk powder (WMP), the key dairy commodity traded on the GDT platform, fell by almost 1% and remains below the $2,000/t mark.
Milk powder futures on the NZX had suggested prices of dairy products are set to rise for the second auction in a row after four straight declines, which did not materialize.
NZD FX radar: Against the US dollar the Kiwi has broken strong resistance at 0.6850, but has pared some gains to currently trade at 0.6836 levels. The pair has been in a holding pattern for months now with the NZD/USD oscillating between 0.68 and 0.64.
The strength has forced the GBP to NZD exchange rate into a downtrend that has its origins in September 2015 when highs above 2.4600 were rejected. In the wake of the GDP data the exchange rate is at 2.0954, the gains that came in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate cut have been forfeited.
While, NZDJPY rallied from 74.623 to 76.458, that's where it has struggled to hold onto the minor resistance.Hence, we reckon the prevailing gains in NZD is just momentary and likely to sense weakness and prolong its long term downtrend.
