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Before the meeting last week, we warned that even if the Federal Reserve succeeds in matching market expectation it is highly likely that it would fail to match the expectation of the President, who has been pushing for a much easier monetary policy via his social media accounts.
From the moves in the interest rate and the USD, it feels that the Fed has more than matched the market expectations; But President Trump’s recent scathing attack on the Fed shows its failure when it comes to the President.
President Tweeted just minutes ago, “Despite a Federal Reserve that doesn’t know what it is doing - raised rates far too fast (very low inflation, other parts of world slowing, lowering & easing) & did large scale tightening, $50 Billion/month, we are on course to have one of the best Months of June in US history... ....Think of what it could have been if the Fed had gotten it right. Thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s. Now they stick, like a stubborn child, when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!”
The Federal Reserve in a tough spot as their dismal record of forecasting inflation since the 2008/09 crisis lay bare in public domain for anyone to see.
Going ahead, we predict the Fed to succumb to the pressure from the White House via U.S. Treasury and President's Trump attack to weigh on USD strength.
