FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
JPMorgan Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $6,300 by End-2026 on Strong Central Bank and Investor Demand 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
BTC Flat at $89,300 Despite $1.02B ETF Exodus — Buy the Dip Toward $107K? 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
We estimate a modest 2.0% QoQ SAAR rebound in GDP growth (from 0.9% in Q3’16). Output in the industrial sector accelerated by 9.9% QoQ SAAR — after a holiday distorted -7% QoQ SAAR contraction — likely adding the largest contribution to growths Q4 bounce.
Retail trade also picked up by 3.9% QoQ SAAR (from 2.5%), which, although the series is extremely volatile, reflecting solid consumer demand.
Construction data suggests EU fund absorption has picked up, and after a year of sequential contraction (Q3’15 - Q2’16) has hopped by 4.3% QoQ SAAR (1.6% in Q3’17). From the expenditure side, we suggest then stronger household consumption, stronger fixed investment offset by somewhat lower net trade contribution (suggested by monthly trade data).
Inflation surprised to the upside again in January, but this time it’s a broad-based price increase.
The sharp acceleration in core CPI should reassure the CNB about a near-term exit from the FX floor and skepticism voiced by a minority of the board about a near-term exit is likely to fade.
We expect the CNB will discontinue the FX floor at the May 4th regular policy meeting.
Stay short EURCZK on limits of the unconventional policy, we remain short EURCZK as the CNB policy floor enters its dying days.
We advocated shorts in EURCZK via the forward contracts just a week ago – at spot reference: 27.0180 expiry 27 November 2017, we now uphold the view.
