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The break of 200DMA opens room for more upside in USDTWD; consequently we uphold USDTWD long position via NDFs due to:
EM currencies should come under further downward pressure through Q1.
Negative forward points offer modest positive carry.
The possibility of heightened risk premium related to US politics (protectionism and geopolitical concerns).
The currency is lagging the move in rate differentials.
The Chinese growth expected to slow in H1 2017 and ongoing RMB depreciation.
Hence, we advocate initiating longs in USDTWD 3m NDF at 32.006 with a target at 33.7 (+5.2%) and a stop at 31.4 (-2.0%). Hence, one can achieve an attractive risk-reward ratio with this strategy. The stop is placed below the 100DMA (31.63) and below trend line support from the September lows. The trade horizon is three months and positive carry is modest (+2bp/month).
Risk profiling: A reversal in the dollar trend, optimism developing regarding Chinese growth, and diminished RMB depreciation risks could pose the adverse impact on the above strategy. Additionally, any failure to break the 200 DMA could see a retracement lower.
