India's Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Iran War Energy Shock 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Japan Inflation Expectations Rise as BOJ Rate Hike Timing Faces Uncertainty 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Bank of Korea Nominee Shin Hyun-song Calls for Flexible Monetary Policy Amid Iran War Risks 
J.P. Morgan Downgrades Essity AB on Rising Costs and Weak Earnings Outlook 
RBI Clamps Down on Rupee NDF Activity, Banks Face Steeper Losses 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Bank of Japan Signals Potential Rate Hike as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Shock 
SEK has been one of the underperformers in G10 this week, weakening in sympathy with EUR. There isn’t an immediately identifiable catalyst for the underperformance, although wage negotiations yielded an outcome that was modestly softer than expectations on Friday and the widely followed Economic Tendency Survey printed 1.5pts below consensus.
As a result, our EASI for Sweden has turned negative for the first time six weeks. One data print doesn’t a trend make and indeed our EASIs typically begin to become meaningful drivers of currencies only if the surprises persist for a 4- to 6- week period.
In the meanwhile, the underlying narrative for a bullish SEK view remains intact — our economists still think that growth will remain strong with a forecast of 4% Q/Q SAAR in 1Q and the bar for additional Riksbank easing remains high. The immediate focus will be on the PMI release next week followed by the CPI on April 11.
Recall that we were also short an EURSEK put to earn some time decay as EURSEK is prone to consolidate between CPI prints. We take profits on the put this week as it has realized nearly half its profit potential.
Sold EURSEK at 9.4847 on January 13. Marked at -0.8%.
Take profits on short 3-mo EURSEK put, strike 9.35 on March 3 for 0.52%. Marked at 0.23%.
Long an NZD put/SEK call, strike 6.10, expiry May 23. Paid 1.47%, marked at 0.59%.
