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Amid the breaking news of Trump-Kim meeting that is likely to be scheduled in May, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were edging up at $60.25 a barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.23%.
Although the front-month contract has sold off, the time spreads remain unchanged in the front month relative to the previous week. For WTI we still think 2H18 time spreads are still very strong and could weaken as US production rises in 2H18.
US PSM data update below shows normal growth from Feb/Mar’18 onwards in the absence of any unplanned outages. Front-month WTI-Brent spreads are at their strongest since August last year touching close to -$3/bbl on 1 Mar.
Trade-weighted dollar has strengthened by 0.3% recently, which is also likely to have contributed to some moves in commodity prices in general and oil prices in particular.
We stay long ICE Brent Jul’18 and short Jul’19 spread trade; long a Dec’18 NYMEX WTI Credit Call spread and long the Dec Brent $55-70 risk reversal.
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