Positive factors less likely to drive CAD than draggers:
Trump’s protectionist declarations, notably labelling NAFTA as the “worst trade deal in the history of the country”, make the Canadian dollar especially vulnerable in the weeks ahead. Clinton has been ahead in the polls most of the time, but Trump is again catching up.
Clinton’s lead is less than two points, suggesting that the election outcome is likely to be very uncertain until the vote. The threat weighing on Canada’s status as a privileged trade partner should be increasingly discounted by FX markets.
In addition to that BoC’s dovish shift biases near-term CAD weaker: The BoC September policy meeting was dovish, as the bank significantly shifted the risk profile to inflation from “roughly balanced” to now “tilted somewhat to the downside”.
The commodity-related Canadian dollar was also hit by tumbling crude price on Friday due to reports that Iran's August crude oil exports jumped 15% to a five-year high of more than 2 million barrels per day, sparking fresh concerns over a global supply glut. Supply adjustment or an OPEC deal causes crude to pierce $60/bbl earlier than expected.
USDCAD has been trading sideways in a range for months but is currently testing an important resistance area. A decisive break of the 1.32 region would open the door for fast gains.
From the nutshell showing delta risk reversals of USDCAD, you can probably make out that the pair has been one of the most expensive pairs to be hedged for upside risks as it indicates calls have been relatively costlier over puts which indicate upside risks of spot FX is anticipated and hedging for such risks is relatively more expensive.


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