Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Last Friday we initiated a CAD long (vs CHF) on a multitude of tactical rationale. These included a potentially renewed impetus to the tightening cycle following the labor market report (which snapped a 2-month run in data disappointments that had caused a 20bp decline in short-end rates) and a meaningful discount versus short-term fair value models (currently having now narrowed to 0.7% on USDCAD or 0.5-sigma).
In addition, the breakout in oil prices most recently not only translates to CAD upside via the translation into upside to short-term fair value (worth 1.3% on USDCAD for the 16% move in WTI in the past month), but raises the risk that oil prices sustain a move into an area where the positive impact broadens out more substantially into greater energy CAPEX and hence a much stronger cyclical and rate outlook behind CAD. We maintain exposure to this trade.
We encourage CADCHF longs at spot levels 0.7741, stop at 0.7650. Marked at +0.14%. Courtesy: JPM
