Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Last Friday we initiated a CAD long (vs CHF) on a multitude of tactical rationale. These included a potentially renewed impetus to the tightening cycle following the labor market report (which snapped a 2-month run in data disappointments that had caused a 20bp decline in short-end rates) and a meaningful discount versus short-term fair value models (currently having now narrowed to 0.7% on USDCAD or 0.5-sigma).
In addition, the breakout in oil prices most recently not only translates to CAD upside via the translation into upside to short-term fair value (worth 1.3% on USDCAD for the 16% move in WTI in the past month), but raises the risk that oil prices sustain a move into an area where the positive impact broadens out more substantially into greater energy CAPEX and hence a much stronger cyclical and rate outlook behind CAD. We maintain exposure to this trade.
We encourage CADCHF longs at spot levels 0.7741, stop at 0.7650. Marked at +0.14%. Courtesy: JPM
