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The growth outlook for Asia as well as the G3 economies remains grin for the fourth quarter of this year as majority consensus states that the structure of demographics is largely responsible for the slowdown in the regions’ gross domestic product (GDP).
Population growth and especially working-age population growth has slowed sharply over the past decade in the US, Japan, Europe and Asia. One has to expect that GDP growth will fall just as sharply. The only way to compare growth today with, say, ten or twenty years ago is to look at it in per-person terms; better yet, in per-working-age person terms.
The second thing that stands out while looking at growth in per-working-age-person terms is that Japan is no longer the world’s growth laggard. And the US is no longer the world’s leader. Most expect the US will grow by 1.9 percent this year. But WAPG is 0.4 percent, so growth per person (of working age) comes to 1.5 percent. Further, Japan’s aggregate GDP growth of 0.5 percent is expected but WAPG is 1 percent, so growth per working age person comes to 1.5 percent in Japan too, identical to the US.
In Europe, WAPG has fallen to zero or slightly below. Add 1.5 percent productivity growth to that and Europe’s potential GDP growth comes to 1.5 percent per year. In the US, retiring baby-boomers have lowered WAPG to 0.4 percent per year. Potential GDP growth of 1.9 percent is implied; just like in Japan, growth in Europe and the US is no slower than what demographics would dictate.
Moreover, if aggregate growth is running at potential in the US, Europe and Japan, the question arises as to why are central banks doing their darndest to raise it further. Also, whether or not negative interest rates, QE and other forceful policies will make any difference remains a question to be resolved.
"Rapidly falling working-age population growth is distorting our perception of performance. It’s time to express it in per-capita terms," DBS commented in its latest research note.
