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Gold prices surged past $2,900 per ounce for the first time this week, driven by escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump hinted at a 25% tariff on all US steel and aluminum imports.
Despite this record-breaking rally, Joe Maher, assistant economist at Capital Economics, warns that gold's momentum might not last. Precious metals have performed exceptionally well in 2025, even without support from typical drivers like the US dollar and real yields. The usual inverse correlation between gold prices and the 10-year US TIPS yield has weakened, with investors seeking gold as a hedge against potential trade wars.
Fears of gold being caught in trade disputes may have prompted US investors to stockpile the metal, particularly on the Comex exchange. Central banks have also increased gold purchases, potentially to reduce exposure to US sanctions, especially after $300 billion of Russian reserves were frozen following the Ukraine invasion.
Additionally, the large US fiscal deficit and Trump's remarks on national debt may be eroding reserve managers' confidence. Robust demand from China’s central bank and private investors seeking stable assets has further fueled gold’s rise.
While non-traditional drivers may continue to support gold prices in the short term, Capital Economics predicts that central bank diversification will be gradual. The high price may deter some investors, and expected rises in long-term US Treasury yields could push gold prices down to $2,750 by the end of 2025.
