US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Soft Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears 
Oil Prices Set for Weekly Surge as U.S.-Iran Conflict Fuels Supply Fears 
Gold Prices Head for Biggest Weekly Loss Since June as Fed Rate Outlook Weighs 
Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions 
Brazil Weighs IP Curbs, Patent Suspensions After New U.S. Tariffs 
Asian Stocks Slide as Nikkei Leads Losses on Tech Selloff and Rising U.S.-Iran Tensions 
China Home Prices Fall Again in June Despite Slower Pace of Decline 
U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian Imports After Section 301 Trade Investigation 
Port of Los Angeles Posts Record June Cargo Volume as Importers Rush Ahead of U.S. Tariffs 
Dollar Slides as Softer US Inflation Dims Fed Rate Hike Expectations 
ECB's Kocher Says No Inflation Spillover Yet From Iran Conflict, Warns Risks Remain 
South Korea’s KOSPI Enters Bear Market Despite Remaining 2026’s Best-Performing Major Stock Index 
Nikkei Plunges 5% as AI Stock Selloff Spreads Across Asia 
UBS Boosts China Tech Bets, Adds Kuaishou and Meituan to Focus List 
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar 
IEA Warns China Rare Earth Export Curbs Could Threaten $6.5 Trillion in Global Production 
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Middle East Tensions, Weak China GDP Weigh on Sentiment 
Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 35%, up from its previous estimate of 20%. The investment bank cited growing uncertainty around trade policy, weakening consumer and business confidence, and a lower economic growth baseline as key drivers behind the revision.
The updated forecast reflects the deteriorating sentiment among households and companies, alongside recent signals from White House officials suggesting a greater tolerance for short-term economic pain in pursuit of more aggressive trade policies. President Donald Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs on April 2, a date he has called "liberation day." These tariffs could include across-the-board 20% rates on major trading partners.
Goldman Sachs has also raised its U.S. tariff projections for the second time in a month, now expecting an average tariff rate of 15% in 2025. The firm warned that such protectionist measures would likely fuel inflation. Core PCE inflation is now projected to hit 3.5% by the end of 2025, significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
In addition to rising inflation expectations, Goldman lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, down from 1.5%, reflecting the economic drag of higher tariffs and persistent inflationary pressures. The bank’s economists expressed concern that Trump’s push for “reciprocal tariffs” could further strain the economy.
As inflation remains sticky and trade tensions escalate, fears of a slowdown are rising. Goldman Sachs' revised outlook underscores the potential impact of Trump's trade agenda on the broader U.S. economy, especially if tariffs drive up consumer prices and dampen growth.
