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Gold hits a fresh all-time high on strong demand. It hit a high of $2954 and is currently trading around $2951.66.
China's Gold Market: Central Bank Buying Spree Continues
China's gold market remained bullish in January 2025, defined by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) ongoing gold reserves addition for the third consecutive month. The PBoC increased its gold reserves by 5 tons to 2,285 tons, equivalent to 5.9% of total reserves, and is a calculated move to strengthen its position amid global economic uncertainties. Conversely, gold prices were also higher with the LBMA Gold Price PM and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM growing 8% and 5%, respectively, representing one of the strongest January performances in the last few years.
ETF Outflows and Wholesale Demand: A Mixed Picture in China
Despite such positive indications, Chinese gold ETFs experienced RMB 2.8 billion of outflows, reducing overall assets under management to RMB 70 billion, as a result of profit-taking ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Wholesale demand recorded modest 3% month-on-month growth but remained far short of historical peaks, a concern in jewelry demand because of the high price of gold. Next year, analysts expect ongoing central bank purchases and potential pick-up in consumer demand to support gold prices in 2025 and forecast a cautiously optimistic scenario for China's gold market.
Rate Pause Sentiments Climb
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause on the Mar 19th, 2025 meeting have increased to 97.50% up from 96% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2920 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2890/$2875/$2860/$2850/$2830/$2800/$2770/$2740. The near-term resistance is at $2955, with potential price targets at $2957/$3000.
It is good to buy on dips around $2890 with a stop-loss at $2870 for a target price of $3000.
