South Korea Factory Output Misses Forecasts in November Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty 
Asia Manufacturing PMI Rebounds as Exports and Tech Demand Drive Growth into 2026 
Federal Reserve Begins Treasury Bill Purchases to Stabilize Reserves and Money Markets 
Asian Markets Slip as Precious Metals Cool, Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment 
USDA $12 Billion Farm Aid Program Draws Mixed Reactions from Row Crop Farmers 
U.S. Dollar Steadies Ahead of Fed Minutes as Markets Eye Policy Divisions 
Asian Currencies Trade Flat as Dollar Weakens in Thin New Year Trading 
Oil Prices Slip Slightly as Markets Weigh Geopolitical Risks and Supply Glut Concerns 
The trend in calendar-adjusted IP levels in CEE countries remains stable so far. Some of the latest dips represent recent month-on-month declines, but these are not sharp enough to raise questions about the trend.
Earlier in the month, we saw stable Polish data even after months of decline in the Polish PMI and GDP data this week is also likely to show a robust 3.8% y/y increase. Hungarian IP data for December record a strong 9.4% y/y increase in headline terms, although falling 0.7% m/m after seasonal and working day adjustments.
However, PMI's have been declining in key countries such as Poland and Turkey for several quarters now and is edging lower in Hungary as well. Whether the data merely reflects geo-political risk perceptions rather than demand conditions is yet to be confirmed.
"We remain vigilant for signs of deceleration based on what we have observed with the German Ifo, but for now, the hard data remain supportive of CEE exchange rates." notes Commerzbank in a research note.
