Dollar Near 18-Month High as Euro, Yen and Pound Weaken 
Indian Stocks Fall as RBI Hikes Rates to 5.50% 
Iran Tanker Attacks Surge as Hormuz Oil Flows Near Prewar Levels 
Oil Prices Rise as Gulf Hurricane and Middle East Supply Risks Mount 
US Treasury Yields Ease After Strong 10-Year Auction as Global Bonds Struggle 
UK House Prices Flat in September as Mortgage Rates Weigh 
Japan Real Wages Rise 1.5%, Supporting BOJ Rate Hikes 
Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Risks Offset IEA Stock Release 
US-Led Coalition Targets Global Factory Overcapacity 
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The trend in calendar-adjusted IP levels in CEE countries remains stable so far. Some of the latest dips represent recent month-on-month declines, but these are not sharp enough to raise questions about the trend.
Earlier in the month, we saw stable Polish data even after months of decline in the Polish PMI and GDP data this week is also likely to show a robust 3.8% y/y increase. Hungarian IP data for December record a strong 9.4% y/y increase in headline terms, although falling 0.7% m/m after seasonal and working day adjustments.
However, PMI's have been declining in key countries such as Poland and Turkey for several quarters now and is edging lower in Hungary as well. Whether the data merely reflects geo-political risk perceptions rather than demand conditions is yet to be confirmed.
"We remain vigilant for signs of deceleration based on what we have observed with the German Ifo, but for now, the hard data remain supportive of CEE exchange rates." notes Commerzbank in a research note.
