BOJ Faces Pressure for Clarity, but Neutral Rate Estimates Likely to Stay Vague 
China Urged to Prioritize Economy Over Territorial Ambitions, Says Taiwan’s President Lai 
European Stocks Rise as Markets Await Key U.S. Inflation Data 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Germany’s Economic Recovery Slows as Trade Tensions and Rising Costs Weigh on Growth 
Oil Prices Rise as Ukraine Targets Russian Energy Infrastructure 
Asian Markets Mixed as RBI Cuts Rates and BOJ Signals Possible Hike 
Asian Markets Stabilize as Wall Street Rebounds and Rate Concerns Ease 
Australia’s Economic Growth Slows in Q3 Despite Strong Investment Activity 
The trend in calendar-adjusted IP levels in CEE countries remains stable so far. Some of the latest dips represent recent month-on-month declines, but these are not sharp enough to raise questions about the trend.
Earlier in the month, we saw stable Polish data even after months of decline in the Polish PMI and GDP data this week is also likely to show a robust 3.8% y/y increase. Hungarian IP data for December record a strong 9.4% y/y increase in headline terms, although falling 0.7% m/m after seasonal and working day adjustments.
However, PMI's have been declining in key countries such as Poland and Turkey for several quarters now and is edging lower in Hungary as well. Whether the data merely reflects geo-political risk perceptions rather than demand conditions is yet to be confirmed.
"We remain vigilant for signs of deceleration based on what we have observed with the German Ifo, but for now, the hard data remain supportive of CEE exchange rates." notes Commerzbank in a research note.
