India’s Housing Market Faces Cooling Demand, Rising Rental Costs

India’s housing market shows little change, with demand from wealthy buyers cooling and unsold luxury inventory expected to remain high or increase, according to a Reuters poll of 15 property analysts conducted from May 16 to June 6.

Home prices, which have more than doubled in the past decade, are forecast to rise 6% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, following a 4% increase in 2024. However, the recent 50-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India to 5.5% has done little to stimulate housing demand, as bank lending rates remain high.

Despite India’s 7.4% GDP growth last quarter, urban consumption lags due to high youth unemployment and stagnant wages. Real estate experts note a significant slowdown in the luxury housing segment. “The ultra-rich buying spree has peaked,” said Pankaj Kapoor of Liases Foras, highlighting cracks in the housing market’s momentum.

Twelve of the 15 experts surveyed believe affordability for first-time buyers will improve, partly due to recent tax benefits and interest rate cuts. However, others remain skeptical, citing persistent economic strain.

Unsold luxury inventory is expected to rise or remain stable as demand stagnates while supply continues to grow. Meanwhile, affordable housing supply may decline due to low developer margins and limited policy support, widening the gap between demand and availability.

This shortage has driven up urban rental prices, forecast to rise between 5% and 9% over the next year—well above the current 3.16% inflation rate. With homeownership increasingly out of reach for millions, renting remains the only option for many, reinforcing concerns of a broader market slowdown.