Jobs and Inflation Fears: Market Outlook for the U.S. and Canada

In January 2025, the U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs, which was below the expected 169,000. The unemployment rate declined by a small percentage to 4.0%. Health care, retail, and social assistance gained jobs, but the mining and oil industries lost jobs. Job numbers for November and December were revised to be better than reported. The average workweek of all workers fell by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours, while earnings per hour were up by 3.9% since a year ago.

Canada, however, created 76,000 jobs in January, much better than anticipated. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%. The country saw more young people at work, more jobs for women, and more men aged 25 to 54. Manufacturing jobs were added most, 33,000, and average hourly wages grew 3.5% to $35.99. Total hours worked rose too.

The University of Michigan's February report showed an inflation expectation rise where 1-year expectations reached a record high since November 2023 to 4.3% compared to 3.3%. Five-year expectations, however, rose very slightly from 3.2% to 3.3%. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment hit its lowest point since July, after it went down to 67.8, while economists targeted an increase of 74 from January 71.1.

Markets look for US inflation, GDP, and Powell's testimony for further direction next week.