Korea Q3 GDP likely to rise 3 pct q/q on decent rise in monthly output numbers, says DBS Bank

South Korea’s third-quarter GDP (preliminary) is due for release this Thursday. Headline growth is expected to rise to 3 percent q/q saar, moderately higher than the 2.4 percent in Q2, albeit lower than the Q1 peak of 4.3 percent. Positive GDP results could be inferred from the decent gains in monthly output figures, including in both manufacturing and services sectors.

Exports growth accelerated strongly in Q3, partly due to the favorable product cycle in the global smartphone market, and partly due to the front load of shipments ahead of the October long holiday. Domestic demand also remained in good shape. Notwithstanding the geopolitical concerns, consumers remained generally confident about the outlook for incomes, employment, and living conditions.

"Our annual GDP forecast of 2.8 percent for 2017 appears easily achievable and the 2018 forecast of 2.9 percent is also on track. A moderate growth pickup will be supported by a continued recovery in global demand and expansion in domestic fiscal policy," DBS Group Research commented in its latest report.

The main risks will come from the external front, including the geopolitical tensions related to North Korea, trade protectionism from the US, and protracted weakness in Korea-China ties. The adverse impact of housing market regulations and chaebol reforms on domestic investment growth will also bear watching in the coming quarters.

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