U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
ECB Signals Steady Interest Rates as Fed Risks Loom Over Outlook 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
New York Fed President John Williams Signals Rate Hold as Economy Seen Strong in 2026 
Federal Reserve Faces Subpoena Delay Amid Investigation Into Chair Jerome Powell 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell Over Headquarters Renovation 
Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
The RBNZ is expected to remain on hold through this year at least, and that seems to quite agreeable. As a result, that should cap 2yr NZ yields at 2.30%, while a slight loss of economic momentum, both in NZ and in developed economies could see the lower bound at 1.95% tested occasionally as markets flirt with a rate cut.
In view of that, contemplating the 2019 outlook, it has been adopted a cautiously defensive position in part expressed through short NZDUSD. While we uphold our NZD shorts given expectations of a dovish-to-unchanged monetary policy and also given its sensitivity to global growth. The main event this week for New Zealand was the soft 4Q CPI report.
We don’t think this justifies a rate cut from the RBNZ in 2019, even though we do expect downgrades to inflation (mostly on oil) and growth and thus a dovish spin on the outlook (4Q CPI not quite the spark for the RBNZ). Please be noted that the AED we recommended back in November, we still retain short NZDUSD exposure in the outright spot. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly NZD spot index is inching towards -153 levels (which is bearish), while hourly USD spot index was at 91 (bullish) while articulating (at 09:16 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
