Markets Brace for Trump Tariff Moves as Stocks Rally and Dollar Wavers

Global investors are cautiously approaching U.S. President Donald Trump’s looming Wednesday deadline for new trade tariffs, though markets appear largely unfazed. The 90-day pause on the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs ends this week, with initial tariff notifications reportedly sent to 12 countries. Despite the uncertainty, traders believe worst-case scenarios are priced in.

Trump recently hinted tariffs could spike up to 70% by August 1—far above the 10%-50% range initially floated. While limited deals have been reached with Britain and Vietnam, talks with India, Japan, and the EU have stalled. Still, global equity markets remain strong. Since April 2, world stocks have surged 24% after an initial 14% dip, reflecting investor confidence despite policy noise.

“The market has become more comfortable with tariff risks,” said Jeff Blazek of Neuberger Berman. Portfolio managers say the abundance of liquidity has made it difficult for funds to stay on the sidelines, even amid geopolitical concerns.

Adding complexity is Trump’s newly signed tax-and-spending bill, which cements 2017 tax cuts and could add over $3 trillion to the U.S. debt. Wall Street welcomed the legislation, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs. However, concerns over inflation and debt have pressured U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, with the dollar index down 11% in 2025 so far—its worst start to a year since 1973.

Interest rate expectations are shifting as traders scale back bets on imminent Fed cuts. “If bond yields rise sharply due to fiscal concerns, the outlook for equities could change,” warned John Pantekidis of TwinFocus.

Investors remain focused on how Trump’s tariff escalation and fiscal policy will shape inflation, interest rates, and broader market dynamics in the months ahead.