Markets React to Trump-Brokered Iran-Israel Ceasefire Amid Cautious Optimism

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday, marking the end of what he dubbed the “12 Day War.” The announcement, made via Truth Social, was met with immediate reaction from global financial markets. U.S. crude oil futures tumbled, while S&P 500 e-mini futures rose and the U.S. dollar weakened as trading resumed.

Market analysts expressed cautious optimism. Hirofumi Suzuki, Chief FX Strategist at SMBC in Tokyo, noted that the USD/JPY rate had returned to pre-conflict levels, signaling reduced demand for safe-haven assets. He added that continued stability would likely support further yen strength.

Tony Sycamore of IG in Sydney said the ceasefire eased tensions but raised concerns about Iran’s unaccounted-for uranium, suggesting geopolitical risks remain. Ray Attrill from National Australia Bank viewed the de-escalation as a relief for oil markets and a positive sign for procyclical currencies, potentially reviving the dollar’s downward trend.

Robert Pavlik at Dakota Wealth saw the ceasefire as a “huge” win for markets, highlighting reduced nuclear threats and minimal risk to U.S. forces. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth cautioned that while market sentiment leaned positive, sustained peace would be key.

Jack Ablin of Cresset Wealth Advisors said geopolitical uncertainty had largely been shrugged off by equity investors, but acknowledged the ceasefire as a “significant milestone.” Jake Dollarhide from Longbow Asset Management called the ceasefire a potential catalyst for continued market rallies, citing relief from oil price pressure and geopolitical fear.

While the ceasefire appears to calm immediate tensions, experts agree that its long-term impact depends on whether both nations uphold the agreement and broader concerns are addressed.