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China’s largest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. (Baosteel), indicated that a nationwide crude steel output cut is highly likely this year, citing government plans to restructure the sector. Baosteel, a subsidiary of state-owned China Baowu Steel Group, said external challenges are mounting for an industry already battling overcapacity and weak domestic demand.

Speaking at Baosteel’s first-quarter results briefing, Deputy General Manager Cai Yanbo noted that while a reduction of up to 50 million metric tons has been discussed, cuts are unlikely to take place immediately. He emphasized that Baosteel has urged authorities to avoid a “one-size-fits-all” approach to output control. A major cut could stabilize the oversupplied market by supporting steel prices while pressuring prices of raw materials.

Baosteel Chairman Zou Jinxin forecast a decline of 15 million tons in China’s steel exports in 2025 due to global tariff increases. Indirect exports, including steel used in containers, vehicles, and engineering machinery, are expected to fall by 20 million tons. Zou also anticipated further government stimulus to mitigate external shocks.

China’s steel exports reached a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons in 2024. Baosteel’s own exports surged to a record 6.07 million tons last year, although the company did not disclose its 2025 target. Meanwhile, domestic steel consumption is projected to fall 2% this year.

Despite the challenging environment, Baosteel posted a 26.4% year-on-year rise in first-quarter net profit, supported by lower production costs.