Mizuho Cuts Tesla Price Target on Weak Q1 Earnings, Sees Hope in Model Y and Cybercab

Mizuho Securities has lowered its price target on Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $325 from $375 after the EV giant reported disappointing Q1 results. Despite the downgrade, the brokerage maintained its "Outperform" rating, citing optimism around Tesla’s upcoming low-cost models and autonomous vehicle ambitions.

Tesla’s first-quarter earnings fell short on both top and bottom lines. The company posted earnings per share of $0.27, missing Wall Street’s estimate of $0.44. Revenue also came in below expectations at $19.3 billion versus the $21.4 billion consensus. Mizuho noted the underperformance was anticipated, yet still sees an 8% year-over-year decline in Tesla’s 2025 deliveries, following the firm’s withdrawal of its annual guidance.

However, Mizuho remains bullish on Tesla’s longer-term growth potential. Analysts highlighted the expected launch of a low-cost Model Y in the first half of 2025 and the rollout of Tesla’s autonomous Cybercab in early 2026 as key catalysts. Despite reports suggesting delays to 2026, Mizuho believes the Model Y launch is still on track, though production ramp-up may be slower than initially projected.

The brokerage emphasized Tesla’s continued leadership in the U.S. EV market, which could help cushion losses stemming from fierce competition and political backlash in China and parts of Europe.

Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, also pledged to shift focus back to the company by stepping back from his government-related duties starting in May—a move that sparked a rally in Tesla shares despite weak earnings.

With Tesla navigating challenges from global EV competition and political scrutiny, Mizuho sees its innovation pipeline as a critical driver of future growth.