Myanmar trade balance likely to improve on rise in energy prices

Myanmar trade balance data, due to be released Friday is likely to rise, given the strong performance in energy prices that are expected to lift exports. Further, imports are expected to decline, leading to a trade surplus for the Myanmar economy.

At least from a statistical perspective, trade data for April due today should report an improvement. Export growth is expected to rise to 2.6 percent y/y, up from a benign 0.2 percent growth in the previous month. Import growth is likely to register a decline of 1.7 percent, which will then translate into a trade surplus of MYR 9.3 billion, DBS reported.

Energy prices have picked up in the recent times and that is expected to boost export values since trade figures are cited in nominal and not, real terms.

However, domestic demand remains soft, which will weigh on import perspective, pushing the trade balance on the upside. A higher exports coupled with declined imports will result to a trade surplus for the economy.

"Plainly, demand isn’t that strong at all. External headwinds remain strong given the sluggish growth in the developed economies and the slowdown in China," DBS said in a research note.

Unemployment rate is grinding higher while job vacancies in the labor market are declining. In fact, the headline unemployment rate has risen to 3.4 percent, seasonally adjusted in 1Q16, the highest level in six years.