NBP unlikely to lower rates in coming months on strong wage and industrial output growth

Poland’s industrial production data released yesterday showed strong growth in April. The country earlier posted a strong wage data for April. The combination of both the strong data considerably lowers the possibility of reduction of interest rates in the coming few months, noted Commerzbank. April’s strong industrial output data reversed the weak growth recorded since the start of 2016.

Looking at the IP data for April, it will be prudent to not over-interpret, added Commerzbank. The early timing of Easter this year signifies that seasonal adjustment might be tricky.

According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland, industrial production grew strongly 6% y/y in April. On a sequential basis, the output fell 3.1%. In its press release, it stated that “in the period January-April of 2016, sold production of industry was by 4.0% higher than in the corresponding period of 2015 which saw a 4.4% increase, whereas construction-assembly production was by 13.1% lower than in the corresponding period of 2015 which saw a 5.1% increase”.