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Small business confidence fell for a third straight month in January, with the CFIB Business Barometer Index falling 1.4 points to reach 54.3. This brings the sentiment reading to a level not seen since the spring of 2009.
Looking at the industry breakdown, the construction sector led overall confidence lower, declining 8.3 points to reach 45.9, indicating that businesses expecting their performance to weaken in the coming year outnumber those expecting a stronger performance. Notable declines in sentiment were also recorded for the transportation and finance/insurance/realty sectors (-4.9 and -4.6 to 53.8 and 56.4 respectively).
Falling business confidence was reported across most provinces, with notable weakness in Manitoba (-5.0 to 61.4) and Alberta (-4.2 to 28.8). Alberta remains the only province in which overall sentiment suggests a net worsening of expected business performance.
With the exception of New Brunswick and Manitoba, insufficient domestic demand was the most commonly reported limitation on production growth, with skilled labour shortages also frequently reported.
Small businesses remained relatively dour about the prospects for growth in January, with nationwide confidence falling to levels not seen since the 2009 crisis. January's report continues the downward trend in confidence that began in the fall of 2014. It is not surprising that this trend continues, given the soft near-term outlook for the Canadian economy, weakening oil prices, and sharp movements in exchange rates and equity markets. Indeed, on the currency front, the CFIB noted that 38% of respondents reported feeling 'squeezed' by currency-related costs in January, in contrast to a level of 10%-15% associated with more normal times.
"It is likely to take some time for business confidence to recover. The Canadian economy is in a period of adjustment that will continue for some time, and is unlikely to grow meaningfully above trend until the latter part of this year. As a result, Canadian small businesses will continue to face a challenging environment in the coming months", noted TD Economics.
