Oil Prices Edge Higher on U.S. Inventory Drop and Middle East Tensions

Oil prices climbed slightly on Thursday, supported by a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories, signaling strong demand, while investors remained cautious over the fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire and broader Middle East stability.

Brent crude rose 12 cents (0.2%) to $67.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 20 cents (0.3%) to $65.12 by 0030 GMT. Both benchmarks rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, rebounding from early-week losses after U.S. data pointed to resilient fuel consumption.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels last week, far surpassing analysts’ forecast of a 797,000-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks also unexpectedly dropped by 2.1 million barrels as supplied gasoline hit its highest level since December 2021.

Nomura Securities economist Yuki Takashima noted that some investors are responding to signs of robust demand reflected in falling U.S. stockpiles. However, he cautioned that uncertainty remains high due to unclear developments surrounding the Iran-Israel ceasefire. He predicted WTI may soon stabilize in the $60–$65 range, aligning with pre-conflict levels.

Adding to market speculation, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin stated over the weekend that OPEC+—which includes Russia and other major producers—could accelerate its planned output increases by nearly a year, hinting at future supply shifts.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed the quick resolution of the Iran-Israel conflict and hinted at upcoming nuclear talks with Tehran. While maintaining pressure on Iranian oil exports, Trump suggested possible leniency in enforcement to aid Iran’s post-war recovery.

Rising U.S. demand, falling inventories, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape oil price dynamics, keeping markets on alert.