Oil Prices Face Modest Upside as Venezuela Crisis and Iran Tensions Raise Supply Concerns

Global oil prices are expected to edge higher when benchmark futures resume trading, driven by geopolitical uncertainty following dramatic developments in Venezuela and renewed tensions involving Iran. However, analysts caution that abundant global oil supply is likely to limit any sustained price rally.

Over the weekend, the United States seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, with U.S. President Donald Trump declaring that Washington would assume control of the oil-rich nation during a transitional period. While the move heightened fears of potential oil supply disruptions, sources familiar with Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA said the operation caused no damage to oil production or refining facilities.

Despite the absence of physical damage, Venezuela’s oil exports have already been severely constrained by U.S. sanctions. Since January 1, exports have effectively been halted, leaving millions of barrels stranded on tankers or diverted into domestic storage. Venezuela’s crude exports fell to around 500,000 barrels per day in December, roughly half the level seen in November, with most shipments occurring before the embargo took full effect. Currently, only Chevron exports about 100,000 barrels per day under a special U.S. authorization.

As storage capacity tightens, PDVSA has begun cutting oil output and has asked several joint ventures to scale back production, potentially forcing the shutdown of oilfields and well clusters. Trump confirmed that the oil embargo remains in place, though he hinted that U.S. refiners could resume processing Venezuelan crude if restrictions are eased.

Meanwhile, Trump’s threat to intervene in Iran amid ongoing protests has added another layer of geopolitical risk. Iran, like Venezuela, is a member of OPEC, and any escalation could further unsettle oil markets.

Still, experts emphasize that global oil markets remain well supplied. OPEC and its allies recently agreed to keep production steady in the first quarter after boosting output significantly in 2025. Analysts from Capital Economics and Saxo Bank noted that any short-term disruption from Venezuela or Iran could be offset by increased production elsewhere.

Brent and U.S. crude futures ended the first trading day of 2026 lower, reflecting investor caution as oversupply concerns continue to outweigh geopolitical risks. While uncertainty around Venezuela’s political future remains high, analysts agree that a meaningful recovery in the country’s oil output would take years, even with potential investment from U.S. oil majors.