Oil Prices Rise Amid U.S. Tariff Threats on Mexico and Canada

Oil prices climbed on Friday as markets reacted to potential tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the top crude suppliers to the U.S.

Brent crude futures for March, expiring Friday, rose 38 cents to $77.25 a barrel at 0110 GMT, while the more-active April contract increased 34 cents to $76.23. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 49 cents to $73.22.

Despite Friday’s gains, Brent is set for a 1.6% weekly decline, while WTI has dropped 2%. However, for January, Brent is on track to gain 3.6%, marking its strongest month since June, while WTI is up 2%.

Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican exports if they do not curb fentanyl shipments into the U.S., with a decision expected soon on whether crude oil imports will be affected.

Canada exported 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude to the U.S. in 2023, out of 6.5 million bpd of total U.S. imports, while Mexico supplied 733,000 bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Oil prices remain volatile as geopolitical risks rise. "Crude prices fluctuated as investors weigh U.S. tariffs alongside new policy moves," said ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes.

Additional factors keeping prices elevated include sanctions on Russia, restricted Venezuelan oil purchases, and pressure on Iran. "Geopolitical risks will drive oil prices higher, potentially compounded by the U.S. refilling its strategic petroleum reserve," Hynes added.

As uncertainty lingers over trade policies and global supply chains, crude markets remain on edge, with traders closely monitoring developments in Washington.