Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Tensions and Ukraine Uncertainty Fuel Supply Concerns

Oil prices climbed on Monday as investors balanced escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with lingering uncertainty surrounding Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations, both of which could have major implications for global energy supply. The rebound followed sharp losses at the end of last week, when fears of a global supply glut weighed heavily on the market.

Brent crude futures rose by 56 cents, or nearly 1%, to trade around $61.20 per barrel in early Asian hours, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 51 cents to approximately $57.25 per barrel. Despite the gains, both benchmarks were coming off more than a 2% drop on Friday, reflecting market caution ahead of diplomatic talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Market analysts noted that the primary driver behind Monday’s oil price increase was renewed concern over geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, Russia and Ukraine reportedly continued targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, raising fears of potential supply disruptions. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have intensified, with Saudi Arabia carrying out air strikes in Yemen and Iran warning it is engaged in what it described as a “full-scale war” involving the U.S., Europe, and Israel. These developments have heightened anxiety over the stability of oil supply routes in the region.

Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump offered some optimism, as he stated that peace negotiations with Ukraine were progressing and that both sides were “getting very close” to an agreement. However, both leaders acknowledged that key issues, particularly territorial control over the Donbas region, remain unresolved. Analysts cautioned that without a concrete breakthrough, uncertainty will continue to influence oil markets.

Looking ahead, WTI crude is expected to trade within a $55 to $60 range. Investors are also monitoring U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and potential fallout from U.S. military strikes against ISIS targets in Nigeria, a country producing roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. Together, these factors suggest oil prices will remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines in the near term.