Polish industrial output likely decelerated in October, producer prices to have continued rebounding

Poland’s industrial sector growth seems uncertain. According to a Societe Generale research report, the nation’s industrial output growth is expected to have decelerated to 2.4 percent year-on-year in October from 3.2 percent in September. In sequential terms, industrial output growth might have stalled to 1.1 percent as compared with 10.4 percent in September.

Mining is expected to have decreased 0.4 percent year-on-year in October, whereas manufacturing growth is likely to have slowed to 1.8 percent. The October PMI survey data shows a further downside risk to industrial output growth forecasts. PMI fell to 50.2 in October from September’s 52.2. This is mostly because of a decrease in new orders.

Meanwhile, producer prices are expected to have continued rebounding in October. Producer prices returned to positive territory in September after remaining in deflation for 46 straight months. This upward trend is expected to have continued in October, with PPI possibly rising to 0.4 percent year-on-year, said Societe Generale. Prices of manufacturing are mainly contributing to the rise in PPI. Moreover, the mining prices component is expected to have risen 0.2 percent sequentially; however, it is likely to have dropped 3.2 percent year-on-year, noted Societe Generale.

On the other hand, retail sales growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.8 percent year-on-year in October from 4.8 percent in the prior month. Sequentially, retail sales are expected to have grown 4 percent.

Clothing, textiles and footwear sales have mainly driven retail sales growth. Real retail sales growth is expected to have come in at 5.4 percent year-on-year. The October retail sales figures are expected to have been stimulated by a marked 11 percent year-on-year in new car and van registrations in October, added Societe Generale.